SPI Buy-Lows and Sell-Highs
	written by: Fantasy Phenoms 06/17/2011

At this point in the season, trading for the right players and trading away the right players can make all the difference. Sure seeing a solid pitcher with an ERA over 4.00 may not seem like a desirable “buy-low” move. However, looking at the Sabermetric Pitching Index lets us track those pitchers who’s ability could be a lot better than their statistics at the moment.

With that in mind, and using Sabermetric stats like ERC and DIPS, here are a few pitchers with a currently high ERA that you will want to target ASAP, before the level back to their dominant selves. Also, We’ll give you some guys who may seem like excellent pick-ups or trade targets, that soon may have the floor drop beneath them.

Brandon Morrow currently has an ERA of 5.63, and although he has not gotten right since we last spoke about him, his Sabers indicate that better times are ahead. His ERC and DIPS are both considerably lower at 4.12 and 2.85 respectively, and with a K/9 rate of 10.93, he makes for a great buy-low candidate. Even better, see if someone would “throw him in” as part of another deal. Fantasy owners see that 5.63 ERA, and get very nervous. We see it, and get excited.

Rookie Mike Leake has the talent to be an excellent pitcher in the big leagues and so far he has shown that potential with his 6-2 record. His ERA is a tad high at 4.06, but slightly lower peripheral numbers in a 3.93 ERC and a 3.89 DIPS tells us that he should continue to put himself in solid situations. In his last two starts, he has gone 8.0 IPs both times, walked one batter in each game, and totaled 11 Ks. He gave up two runs to the Cubs and none to the Giants. Before those two starts his ERA was 5.03, and in ten days shaved nearly a full run off his line, a line that will continue to head south in terms of ERA. Shockingly, Leake could be scooped up in about 70-80% of leagues out there. Timing is running out on this steal.

We all know the ability of former “Our Boy” poster boy, Zack Greinke. Yet, after an early season injury, some may match that up with his 5.23 ERA and hit the panic button. Luckily you have the SPI, and that indicates his DIPS of 2.75 and his ERC of 3.69 will likely lead to dramatic improvement for him. After all, anyone who is mowing hitters down at a 11.81 K/9 clip will get his full act together, and help out fantasy owners soon in all pertinent categories. If you own Greinke, stay patient, if you don’t, and have a jittery owner then now is the time to pounce.

Last on the target list we’ll go to Cubs glove-flasher Ryan Dempster. The current ERA is too high for Dempster, who has sported an ERA under 4.00 in three straight season. Right now, he is at a 5.48, however the 4.21 DIPS and 4.75 ERC are encouraging. His K/9 is a top-20 mark at 8.48, so he still makes for a solid fantasy play, and could be a solid guy to target if you are looking for a moderate move to get some pitching depth.

The following guys are currently doing very well in the ERA department, and may look like nice pick-ups or trade targets…not so fast.

Johnny Cueto has returned from the DL like a man on a mission. Eight starts, seven being Quality Starts, and a 4-2 record have some owners thrilled. However, he could be getting some luck his way, as his peripheral stats aren’t proving that he’ll continue this pace. Sure the ERA and WHIP at 1.68 and 1.01 seem too good to be true, and that is because, they are. His DIPS is at 3.61 and his ERC is 2.14 so expect Cueto to come back down to earth. He isn’t a reliable K-machine, and with a 6.04 K/9, we don’t recommend targeting him, and we do recommend selling high on him quickly.

Josh Collmenter is a nice fantasy pitcher to look at on paper at first glance. Yet, the rookie is about to level out and hit a wall. The two best pieces of evidence for that prediction is the fact his K/9 is microscopic at 5.7, and his DIPS is 3.56. So if you are hovering over the “add” button when looking his stats, think again, and pick up Mike Leake.

Right now, Kyle Lohse is pitching out of his mind based on the fact his career ERA is 4.68, and that he has only finished one full- season out of ten with a mark under 4.00. If that isn’t reason enough, his DIPS is a run higher at 3.81 than his current ERA of 2.88 and like Collmenter, doesn’t strikeout enough batters to be a fantasy reliable starter. That K/9 rate of 5.20 is not helping anyone.

Nick Blackburn is not someone you need to think about adding regardless of his 3.16 ERA. The WHIP is not great at 1.32 and even worse, his ERC is a run higher than the ERA at 4.19 and the DIPS is worse at 4.64. His K/9 is 4.65 and that is well within the lower third of the league in that category. Blackburn can stay on the waiver wire, and even in AL-Only leagues isn’t that valuable of a starter.

Clay Buchholz has been progression solidly from 2008, and last year he finished 2010 with a 2.33 ERA and a respectable 1.20 WHIP. So far in 2011, he is 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. I wouldn’t be looking for more progression here as his DIPS is 4.44 and his ERC is slightly higher than the ERA at 3.74. Like the previous pitchers on this list, Buchholz is not so valuable for roto-leagues since his K/9 is relatively low at 6.53.

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