Three pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far are Jon Lester, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Owners of these pitchers have been relying on them as weekly starters who play an intricate role for their fantasy teams. All three are on pace to strike out over 240 batters. If you had to choose one of these pitchers to continue this trend, who would it be? Why?
I'm taking Verlander over Greinke by the slimmest of margins. Verlander has the edge on K-rates with Greinke exhibiting better control (so expecting less WHIP). I'm not swayed by Win potential - Detroit isn't that great of a team this year and there's enough flukiness with run support that it's not worth giving an edge either way.
I lean toward Verlander because is I think he's more likely to stay strong/healthy the rest of the year. Two different reasons culled from this historical analysis (http://razzball.com/can-previous-year-pitch-counts-help-identify-risky-pitchers/): 1) JV has a track record of handling a 3,500 pitch load. He's been at or near it the past 2 seasons. Greinke's 3,200 pitches in 2008 was his first time over 3,000 since 2005 and 2) JV throws less breaking pitches. Greinke's throwing 38% breaking balls to Verlander's 25%. I think this only increases the chances of Greinke finishing weaker or going on the DL.
As for Lester, his HUGE pitch increase between 2007 and 2008 leaves me wary of him tiring in the 2nd half. I think he'll continue to trail Verlander and Greinke in effectiveness for the rest of the year.
Amazingly, all three pitchers have almost identical expected ERA marks, with xFIPs ranging from 3.06 to 3.23. Those figures tell me that hey have all pitched equally well so far, so it is just a matter of determining who has the best chance of sustaining his current skill set. I vote for Justin Verlander to produce the most fantasy value for his fantasy owners the rest of the way. His average fastball velocity has rebounded, jumping nearly two miles per hour from last year, which ties his previous high speed set in 2005. According to FanGraphs' pitch values, the pitch has been the ninth most effective fastball in baseball, after being just average last season. In addition, his curve ball has improved, suggesting that the huge spike in his strikeout rate may not be a fluke. Last, the Tigers defense ranks first in all of baseball in UZR/150, which should lead to better fielding support compared to Lester and Greinke, who suffer from the third and fourth worst defenses in baseball, respectively.
Among those three top performers, I'd have to go with Zack Greinke. Lester has to battle the green monster every home game, making him more prone to disaster starts. For that reason alone, I think he'll have some problems as the air warms over the summer. Verlander on the other hand, is somewhat of an enigma. He has battled a BABIP of .331 through his June 26 start, suggesting that his 3.40 ERA and 1.24 WHIP still have room to improve with a little bit of luck. I don't buy it fully. Verlander's HR-rate and control are career bests (0.6 HR/9 and 2.96 BB/9), and he's proven himself to be a first half pitcher pretty consistently in his career; just look at his cumulative numbers (and the trend has come true every single year he's been in MLB):
Pre-All-Star Break: 3.49 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Post-All-Star Break: 4.96 ERA, 1.49 WHIP
As for Greinke, you may look to his current rough patches and think "the party's over." In reality, he has a correction under way at the moment. I mean, really, who thought he'd finish with an ERA below 2.00? His BABIP to date has been around .314, and he is still holding hitters to .231 batting average against. This, my friend, is a coming out party. I own him in three leagues, and I ain't sellin' nuthin'!
If 240 is hit it'll be done Verlander. He has a has a higher K-rate than Greinke. Lester I'm ruling out because he'll face better teams more often by being in the AL East. That and I imagine he'll end up on the DL at some point. Greinke may also be nursed toward the end of the season as the Royals who will be out of it will protect their crown jewel. Verlander's arm will be abused down the stretch - especially if the Twins are able to tighten up the Central a bit.
I am not sure I would include Jon Lester as having exceeded expectations. For the first two months of the season he looked like a disappointment. I should know I had to bench him in a couple of leagues. But he has been on fire lately and I believe his overall potential is just as high as for the other two.
Before the season began I predicted that Lester would become a top ten starter this season. Technically, that has not happened. As much as most analysts are done using ERA as a measure of a pitcher's talent, it is still a necessary barometer of performance as 20 percent of a pitcher's value in most leagues. Lester's ERA (as I write this) is still 4.68 which illustrates just how bad he was in the first two months of the season. His 10.33 K-rate, 2.92 walk -rate, and 48 percent groundball rate all support my belief that he can be one of the better starters in baseball. I believe he will continue to get better as the season progresses.
Justin Verlander, whose numbers sparkle thus far this season has allowed a 23 percent line drive rate but just a .236 BAA. That seems a little out of whack to me. Verlander has been what I would consider lucky for most of his MLB career. But this season he seems to have arrived as the genuine article. My gut tells me it won't last. I still like him. I would not try to sell him high or expect a disaster. I do expect his numbers to continue to tick back closer to his career norms.
Zack Greinke is having a bust out season. He was always expected to become a very good pitcher. It just took longer than anticipated. It is tough to find any holes in Greinke's performance this season. His 2.8 percent HR/FB is a place to start but even if you normalize it he would still be having a fantastic season. I think Greinke will win the AL Cy Young Award. I think Greinke will continue to be a great pitcher just not quite as good as in the first half of the season.
If I could only have one of these great pitchers in the second half I would pick Jon Lester. I believe he will pitch just as well as these guys in the second half (if not better) but on a superior Red Sox team. I also believe that Lester is the easiest to acquire of this trio (if you don't live in Boston like I do) as the one with the worst overall fantasy stats. But the key is not what a player has already done but what they are likely to do in the future.
Well, the first thing that must be noted is that each of these pitchers has thrown only 100 innings or so at this point. None were projected to have a K/9 above 8.0 before the season by any of the major projection systems, and with just 100 IP so far in 2009, it's unlikely any reasonable projection system would give any of these pitchers a 9.0 K/9. So what this question is really asking is "which of these pitchers is most likely to beat - scratch that, destroy - their rest of season strikeout projection."
For me, I'd have to pick Verlander. Despite how well Greinke has pitched, his K/9 is only 8.9. Unless he were to improve it further, he would need to throw 243 innings or so to reach 240 Ks. That's an incredible number for any pitcher and essentially eliminates Greinke from the running.
That leaves Lester and Verlander. Both are sporting K/9's above 10.0, but I'd pick Verlander for a few reasons. First, his K/9 is almost at 11.0. Second, he has a greater history of Ks (Lester has never shown anywhere near this kind of ability, even in the minors) and a greater pedigree. Finally, Verlander is displaying greater stuff than he ever has before. His 4-seamer is absolutely disgusting at over 95 MPH with 10.5 inches of rise and 7.6 inches of horizontal movement. His change-up is nearly 12 MPH slower and also has great movement. His curve, while not tremendous, is generating more movement than it has been since 2007 (the year we received PITCHf/x data). Lester's stuff also looks to have improved since last year, but Verlander's looks better.
While none of these guys is a good bet to strike out 240 batters, the evidence suggests Verlander is the best of the three.
I’m going to give the nod to Zack Greinke. Before I explain why, I’ll explain why not in regards to the others. Justin Verlander has been sensational for a majority of the season but struggled terribly early on. He’s also falling into another rough patch right now. He’s walked 14 batters over his last five starts and might end up sandwiching a ridiculous May with an awful April and a sub-par June. That kind of inconsistency won’t make him the better pitcher from here on in. Jon Lester has already been inconsistent. Sabermetrics say he’s been a bit unlucky and if he continues to pitch the same way for the rest of the year, his stats will improve. In addition, Jon pointed out above, he will be the easiest to acquire and does pitch for the better team. What I don’t like about Lester and Verlander is their abnormal K/9 ratios. I mean, I like that they are providing such high ratios, but those ratios are unlikely to continue. Last year only Tim Lincecum and Rich Harden were able to sustain those ratios over the course of a full season. Only Erik Bedard and Scott Kazmir did it in 2007. In 2006 nobody was able to sustain a K/9 ratio above 10.00. As of today, Harden, Lester, Lincecum, Vazquez and Verlander all have K/9 ratios above 10.00. Harden and Lincecum have already shown that they are capable of giving 180+ innings of 10.00 or better K/9 ratios. Vazquez has always had a ratio around nine and moving to the NL has helped. That leaves newbies Jon Lester and Justin Verlander. Last year Verlander’s K/9 ratio was below 7.00 and in 2007 it was 8.17. Jon Lester’s K/9 ratio last year was 6.50. Both have made tremendous jumps. Based on the number of pitchers who sustain such a high ratio each year coupled by the jump they’ve both made, it seems unlikely that they continue.
Zack Greinke on the other hand sported a K/9 ratio of 8.14 last year and currently holds a more comparable and realistic ratio of 8.90. Post All-Star break last year, Greinke’s K/9 ratio was 9.08, showing he can jump from 8.14 to 8.90. Last year Greinke finished with a 3.47 ERA and his 3.68 ERC and 3.48 DIPS full supported his breakout season. This year we’ve see much of the same. His 1.95 ERA isn’t going to stay that low, but his ERC and DIPS are both in the low 2.00’s, showing that he is in fact pitching very, very well. Lastly, I like how he’s rebounded over his last two starts. After giving up 12 runs over three starts and forcing owners to panic, Zack has given up only three runs combined in his last 14+ innings. Go with Greinke.
