There comes a time in each draft where you have to decide between a few similar players. If those players are older, you might not need such a quick trigger finger. If they are young and up-and-coming, you'll have to decide quickly before someone else takes your guy. This week's question is meant to alleviate one of the many tough decisions you might have in this year's draft:
Who do you take first? Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen or Carlos Gonzalez.
Patrick DiCaprio - Fantasy Pros 911
I will guess that most people would say McCutchen, and why not? Well, his ISO was a virtual career high, and he may have difficulty repeating that as his minor league numbers do not show a player that can approach a .200 ISO. For his part, Adam Jones has a lot of buzz, but forgive me if I do not see why. Like McCutchen there are very good reasons to be skeptical of the power, namely that 28.1% FB rate and 18% HR/FB. It will be a miracle if those are repeated, and unless he makes a bit change in approach even 15 home runs may be too many. Throw in a walk rate below 7% and that is not exactly a palatable combination for a so-called "sleeper."
So, I suppose I have to go with Gonzalez by default.While his ISO was a robust .241 and looks like an outlier, he is playing in Colorado so there is a reasonable chance that he repeats and 13 home runs in 278 AB is nothing to sneeze at. The issue for him is strikeouts, but none of these three are wart-free, and unlike the others he will not be grossly overvalued. I will admit I would not be ecstatic about any of them, however. Long-term, go with McCutchen, short-term, Gonzalez.
Adam Ronis - Newsday
I think the three are close, but if I had my choice I'd take Andrew McCutchen
first. He was highly touted and very successful at the minor league level. In
433 at-bats with the Pirates last season, he hit .286 with 12 home runs, 54
RBIs, 74 runs and 22 stolen bases. He showed progression as the season went
along. For a young hitter, he draws walks. He had a 19% strikeout rate and an
11% walk rate, but he had a 54/44 K/BB ratio after the All-star break. You don't
see too many young players come up and walk that much and it's especially a good
thing for him because of his speed. He had a high success rate on the base paths
stealing 22 of 27 bases. McCutchen should hit around .280-.290 with 15-20 home
runs and 30-40 stolen bases and score a good amount of runs. Jones showed
improvements last season in the strikeout and walk departments, but he hit way
too many ground balls with a 55 percent rate and just a 28 percent fly ball
rate. Jones has 10 stolen bases in each of his first two seasons, so his stolen
bases with be a lot less than McCutchen. Gonzalez finished the season strong and
has a lot of potential. He still strikes out a lot, but he did improve his walk
rate in the majors. The other concern is his ability to hit lefthanders on a
consistent basis. He fared well against lefthanders last season, but it was a
small sample size of just 58 at-bats. Still, I could see him going 20-20. I like
all three, but prefer McCutchen.
Jared Norris - Fantasy Baseball Geeks
I’m going Andrew McCutchen over the other youngsters. There is no “Catch 22” when it comes to Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen. “Cutch-22” is for real and I feel confident that McCutchen’s stock can only go up in 2010.
McCutchen looked very polished for a 22 year-old rookie last season playing in 108 games with the Bucs and sporting a .286 batting average to go along with 12 home runs and 54 RBIs. He also showed off his speed on the base paths by stealing 22 bags. McCutchen can flat out fly when he gets his legs going (Don’t believe me; check out this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZRH4YZOSpQ
). McCutchen’s ability to stretch his hits into extra bases really separates himself from the other two in my opinion.
McCutchen had 26 doubles and nine triples last season in only 433 at bats. His 47 extra-base hits were tops among rookies in the league. The power he displayed last season came as a bit of surprise for the speedster. By looking at the 8 home runs he hit in the month of August -- including the impressive three home runs he hit in one game against the Nationals -- you would think McCutchen could hit 20+ home runs in his first full season. But, I wouldn’t bank on a big gain in home runs from him in 2010. I think McCutchen will end up somewhere in the 15-20 range.
McCutchen is a safe pick in the middle rounds next year, but if he can reach his full potential he could end up being one of the biggest steals of the draft. Just pray that the baggy pants and similar haircut of teammate Lastings Milledge is only a coincidence and McCutchen doesn’t follow the same career path.
Tim Dierkes - RotoAuthority
I would take McCutchen, as he seems to be the most likely to hit 20 home runs and steal more than 30 bags. He didn't have a bad month in his rookie season, and he will rack up runs and steals as the Pirates' leadoff hitter.
Jones doesn't seem likely to run as much, and his groundball-hitting will affect his power. Gonzalez is quite appealing, but I worry that he could face playing time issues if with Brad Hawpe, Seth Smith, and Dexter Fowler also in the fold.
Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
Carlos Gonzalez ranked 5th behind only Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn and Derrick Lee in Isolated Power in the second half last year with a .289 mark. He needs to learn to take a walk more often, evidenced by his .085 BB/PA mark, but he's got the tools to become a five category stud. Carlos ranked 11th in the second half of 2009 with an 8.39 RC27 and a 3.20 AVG and hit a homerun every 16.2 AB. He stole 11 bases and hit 12 homers during that span and with recent rumors that Brad Hawpe might play some first base this year, Gonzalez has a chance to reach 500 AB.
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