|
Griffey Reaches 600 HR Plateau
|
|
|
|
Ken Griffey Jr. continues to cement his place in Major League Baseball's record books, hitting his 600th home run in the first inning off the Marlins' Mark Hendrickson at Dolphin Stadium. He has now become the sixth member of the 600 Home Run Club, a club that includes Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Sammy Sosa as the only players to reach that plateau.
Many say they knew Griffey would be this great from the day he made his MLB debut back on April 3, 1989 for the Seattle Mariners. Now 20 years later, "The Kid" is no longer a kid. He is an all-time great and could be the most prolific hitter of this time period. This obviously is opinion and depends on those infamous performance enhancing drugs. I think and hope that Griffey was clean and thus place him at the top. With the prettiest left-hander swing and a unique swagger everytime he stepped into the batter's box, Griffey is an idol and role model in the sport of baseball.
So what lies ahead for Griffey? Will be he traded? If so, will be go back to the AL where he can DH? Or will he finish out his career in the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark? Will be continue to average almost 30 home runs a season?
Or the big question: Is he still worth having on your fantasy team this year and in years to come? That all depends what you are looking for.
Griffey was one of baseball’s most prolific sluggers before injuries began to take their toll, otherwise who knows how many homers he could have hit. And despite those injuries, he started the season with 593 home runs.
Two hundred and sixteen at-bats into the season, Griffey finally made history by hitting No. 600. That means that he hit a long ball once every 31 at-bats. In his career, Griffey has hit a home run once every 15 at-bats. This can partially be attributed at age and partially because no one wanted to be the pitcher that gave up No. 600. The fact that No. 599 came on May 31 and that Griffey then made 22 plate appearances, during which he walked eight times and went 7-for-17 at the plate, proves that the 38-year-old can still play. Amazingly, during this nine-day "drought" his OBP was .600.
This is normal when getting close to a milestone. People can start pressing and it’s also harder to get “the right pitch” to hit out of the ballpark when in the spotlight. Pitchers simply don’t want to be “that guy.” Griffey hit No. 597 on April 23 at Great American Ball Park and proceeded to go 90 at-bats, the second-longest drought of his career – before hitting his next round tripper. Point proven.
But fantasy owners shouldn’t worry. Griffey is an all-time great. He will continue to hit home runs – as long as he is in the lineup. If you look at Griffey’s career numbers, as long as he plays he hits home runs once every four games, bats .290 and drives in runs like it’s his job. (Wait, it is his job.) So hope for good health and then expect 30 home runs and 90 RBIs a season until “The Kid” retires. I think that’s well worth a roster spot and, if he plays 160 games, Griffey’s output could be even higher.
If you do the math, Griffey should end up with between 20 and 30 home runs this season. I’d bet on the higher end of that scale. Let’s give him 620 at the end of this season (that’s 27 this year) and assume he stays at the same pace until he retires. Then, we give Griffey four more seasons in Major League Baseball. He would end up with 740 home runs at age 42 and be third all-time, behind only Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron.
The long and the short of it is that Griffey will be a first ballot Hall of Famer and is still deserving of a roster spot on any fantasy baseball team.
Questions or comments? pauls@fantasyphenoms.com
|
