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Offseason Movement 1.18.2009
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Baseball Hot Stove Update
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Here's our take on the most recent free agent signings and trades for the 2008-2009 offseason.
Felix Pie traded to Baltimore - He's likely a reserve, but could take PT away from Luke Scott. It would be nice if he was given an opportunity to paly every day. We'll see hwo things shake out, but this looks like a nice move for the Orioles, assuming they intend on playing him every day.
Garrett Olson traded to Chicago Cubs - He was awful last year and a move to the NL would help him if he were to receive a spot in the rotation. As of now, that won't be the case.
The Braves sign Derek Lowe. Atlanta signed the starter for four years at $60 million. Lowe, who is 35 years old had a 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2008. He had a very strong second half of the season, which is an attributing reason to the hefty contract. He joins Javier Vazquez on Atlanta's revamped pitching staff.
Takashi Saito signs with Boston - This signing takes away all of his fantasy appeal. At age 39, Saito has to be considered brittle. With Papelbon closing, Saito will need him to get injured to provide you with any value.
John Smoltz signs with Boston - Nice move by Boston. He'll probably take the Roger Clemens approach and only pitch half a season. Boston will be in playoff contention with or without Smoltz. In drafts, make Smoltz your #6 or #7 SP. After missing last season, coupled with his age, he's a huge risk. With Baldelli and Smoltz, the Red Sox are certainly taking some great gambles that could pay huge dividends.
Rocco Baldelli signs with Boston - He returns to the New England area, where he grew up. He's more of an injury risk than anyone I've ever written about. Boston is a great spot for him but we'll have to see what their plans are for his playing time. If you think he will get 500 AB's then go ahead and make him a #4 or #5 OF. We don't think that will happen and he should be seen as a bench reserve as the season begins. Of course, there is potential that comes along with that though.
Trevor Hoffman signs with Milwaukee - He'll close and the job will be his. We'll see how he fares outside of Petco, where some of his potential homers were sheltered. He's probably a low-end #2 and a great #3.
Jason Giambi signs with Oakland - Giambi is a two-category player, bottom line. He can hit 30 homers and depending on where he bats in the lineup, he can drive in 90. He'll provide good protection for Matt Holliday, so that's good news for Holliday owners. Giambi is one of those players where scenery doesn't matter. Expect a .250 AVG and 30 homers but the RBI will be dependent on how well the lineup does in Oakland.
Marcus Giles signs with Philadelphia - I guess Chase Utley won't be back on Opening Day after all. He's a cheap source of potential for the first few weeks of 2009 and, if he plays well, could push Pedro Feliz for some playing time. Don't hold your breath though. You should find much better options considering he's likely to bat towards the back end of the lineup.
Jason Marquis traded to Colorado - He was never of much use and now things remain the same. I'm worried about how this may effect my boy Jorge De La Rosa.
Carl Pavano signs with Cleveland - Do the Indians think it is 1998 again? Wood and Pavano were the 1998 versions of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez but now are quite washed up. Pavano is as big of an injury risk as there is. Don't expect much nor let the name fool you.
Milton Bradley signs with Chicago Cubs - He needs to stay healthy. MB had a career year last year, in only 414 AB's. It's sad to say, but now that he's signed a contract, he may never increase those 400 AB's he got last year. I'll say this though: If Bradley and Harden give 600 AB and 200 IP, the Cubs should win the World Series. Expect risk from Bradley but the reward is obivous as per his 2008 stats.
Pat Burrell signs with Tampa - After hitting .250 and totaling roughly 150 RBI + runs last year, Burrell did his best impression of Jack Cust. And we all know what Jack Cust brings to the table. Burrell wasn't one of those hitters who benefitted from playing in a small ballpark, evidenced by 21 of his 33 HR coming on the road. Switching leagues isn't helpful to hitters at first (Miguel Cabrera) so don't expect Burrell to come shooting out of the gun. 30 homers is still possible though.
Mark DeRosa traded to Cleveland - He's batted .285 or better for three straight seasons but may struggle initially to maintain such a high AVG while switching leagues. DeRosa probably will play 3B for the Indians along with some outfield, but should remain eligible at 2B in most leagues because that's where he played last year. He's gotten better over the last three seasons, which is rare for someone in his early 30's, but its also possible that he started doing something differently, such as adjusting his swing or timing. He should be good for about 12 homers and if he bats second behind Grady Sizemore and in front of Hafner and Martinez, he could provide a cheap source of runs. As a 3B he's not so fantasy-relevant, but if you can make him a 2B or MI for 2009, he'll make a good starting option.
Brian Fuentes signs with Anaheim - Fuentes will be one of the closers who enter 2009 with the starting job and no competition. He may not be the best reliever on his team, but he has been a solid reliever for years now. He did face a bump in the road a few years ago when he lost his job to Manny Corpas though. Consider him a #2 closer going into 2009.
Willy Taveras signs with Cincinatti - Fast Willy will play center field and bat leadoff for a mediocre, yet exciting Reds offense. Likely followed by Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and company, he has a chance to be a two-category stud. He can score 100 runs if he stays healthy and steal 50+ bags again. Expect zero power and RBI but his AVG has fluctuated throughout his career. We'll have to see what offseason adjustments he's made before banking on a batting AVG. I'd have liked it better if the Reds resigned Dunn and made Chris Dickerson their starting CF.
Randy Johnson signs with San Francisco - I am very close to calling the Giants favorites to win the NL West. After revamping one of the worst bullpens in the NL, they have signed the much needed veteran pitcher. He will help improve guys like Cain and Sanchez, while Lincecum improving would make him the new Randy Johnson. Imagine Lincecum striking out 300 like RJ? Ok, I'll stop dreaming. I digress. In all seriousness, RJ brings leadership to a young Giants staff (Barry Zito doesn't count) and strikeouts to your fantasy team. RJ's K/9 ratio is still top 10 in the majors. Health is another story. The ballpark is favorable when compared to Arizona. Don't expect him to make 30 starts next year but if he could make 15-20 he could provide tremendous value as one of your last picks in the draft.
Mark Teixeira signs with New York Yankees - Tex is a solid second round pick next year. He's as safe of a pick out there, averaging 31 homers and 107 RBI over the last three seasons, on three different teams. Expect an average close to .300 and at least 200 combined runs and RBI. Tex should bat either third or fourth in a strong Yankees lineup. He's just outside of the top five 1B, but makes a solid second round pick no matter how you slice it.
Daniel Cabrera signs with Washington - This is the perfect change of scenery that someone with Cabrera's potential needed. I do realize that Baltimore and Washington are less than an hour away, but a new team is a new team. For reasons often unexplained, a change of scenery makes the world of a difference for many. Take a chance on DCab in 2009.
Juan Rivera signs with the Angels - Rivera has been plagued by injuries throughout his career and shouldn't be relied upon as a weekly starter. He should play every day in Anaheim but his health will make or break him. If you miss out on Jayson Werth, take a chance on Juan Rivera. He'll make a high risk, high reward bench player on draft day.
Rafael Furcal re-signs with the Dodgers- Furcal resigned a reported 3-year $33 million deal, and will once again man the SS position for the team played the last three seasons for. It appeared he was heading back to Atlanta, but no deal is done until it is done and Furcal remains out west.
Kerry Wood signs with Cleveland - Wood becomes the closer for a team that was in dier need of one after the Joe Borowski era came to an end. Wood has his healthiest year in a long time last season and we'd assume it had to do with limiting his innings as a closer as opposed to a starter. Cleveland was smart to take only two years as Wood's health has been his only negative throughout his career. Consider him a top 10, or #1 closer next year, but, as always, be prepared to house three on your roster (or his backup) just in case.
AJ Burnett signs with New York Yankees - He'll again be the #2, but this time behind CC Sabathia instead of Roy Halladay. In 2008, Burnett had an ERA above 4.00 for the first time since 2004. His 1.34 WHIP was his highest since 2003. However, his 231 were the highest of his career. He played like a Javier Vazquez, but is ten times more of an injury risk. Consider him a #4 SP but is an injury risk, as always.
Dayan Viciedo signs with Chicago White Sox - The 19-year-old Cuban defector is probably 27 and in his prime. We'll never know, though. He has a chance to push Josh Fields from playing time at 3B, especially with Joe Crede out of the picture. The Sox had success last year when they brought over Alexei Ramirez, so let's assume they know what they are doing when it comes to Cubans. We'll see how he does in the spring, but he's certainly someone to take a flier on in 2009. It's tough to find out what his stats were in 2008, but I do know that he didn't make the 2006 World Baseball Classic. Stay tuned for more on him.
As the winter meetings come to an end, the World Champion Phillies made a minor splash to counter the New York moves, by signing OF Raul Ibanez to a 3-year deal. This pretty much means Pat Burrell will be wearing a different uniform this season. Right now, Ibanez is a come back fantasy player candidate, as he now enters baseball most potent offense, especially at home in Citizens Bank Park. Stay tuned for Burrell's new address. Ibanez could be a huge sleeper this year playing in the middle of a great lineup and in one of the best hitters parks there is. Consider him a nice #3 OF this year.
Felipe Lopez signs with Arizona - After stealing nearly 70 bags over a two-year period, last year Lopez only stole eight last year. He'll start and play second base and hopefully bat atop the lineup. If so, he could bat .280 with 10 homers 90+ runs and 20+ SB's. His skill set makes him an excellent sleeper in 2009.
J.J. Putz traded to New York Mets in 3-team 12 Player deal. The Mets further strengthened their bullpen, trading for former Seattle closer/set-up man Putz. The deal also sends OF Jeremy Reed and RHP Sean Green. Heading out west, will be OF Endy Chavez and RP Aaron Heilman. Four minor leaguers will be sent to the AL west as well. The third team involved was the Indians, and they sent OF Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle. Cleveland gets RP Joe Smith from the Mets and IF Luis Valbuena from the Mariners. Putz will have little to no value while setting up for a very healthy K-Rod. Heilman, if given the chance to start, could have some Braden Looper-esque upside, but don't expect Just Duchscherer from 2008. Franklin Gutierrez could have some Jayson Werth-like numbers if he's given the full-time gig. Everyone else involved in this deal won't have much fantasy relevance going into 2009.
C.C. Sabathia signs a 7-year $160 million contract with the New York Yanlees. The Yankees land this off-season's biggest fish, as Sabathia is now wearing the pinstripes. Consider Sabathia a top SP heading into drafts, as last year, he was simply brilliant in the second half of the season as a Brewer. He wasn't too shabby as an Indian either. Big day for the Yanks.
Edwin Jackson has been traded to Detroit - Jackson had his share of good starts and bad starts last year but didn't strike out many batters and faded down the stretch. I'd pass on him in 2009.
Kyle Farnsworth signs with Kansas City. Ho-Hum.
Matt Joyce traded to Tampa Bay - Joyce hit 12 homers in 242 AB's with Detroit but batted only .252. He's a true DH, and will likely replace Cliff Floyd. That is, if the Rays don't sign Jason Giambi or someone else to DH instead. If given the opportunity to play full-time, you could be looking at cross between Pedro Feliz and Richie Sexson.
Ronny Paulino traded to the Phillies - Jason Jaramillo was the minor leaguer sent to Pittsburgh to complete this deal. The Phillies may be moving Paulino or Coste in another deal. Paulino certainly adds depth to their catching situation, but this is too much depth if you ask me. Don't forget, they also have Carlos Ruiz. Paulino, if he stays in Philadelphia, remains buried on the depth chart.
Casey Blake signs with Los Angeles - Blake batted. 251 with 10 homers and 23 RBI in 58 games with the Dodgers last year. He's turning 36 next year and shouldn't be relied upon for fantasy purposes. He's beyond a starting CI and should be left on most waiver wires. He's Pedro Feliz with a better batting average. He's the vanilla of flavors. There's no icing on this guy's cake. But Joe Torre likes the guy.
Horacio Ramirez signs with Kansas City - Ignore this signing for fantasy purposes.
Mark Loretta Signs with Los Angeles - No matter how much playing time he receives, he's someone to avoid on draft day.
Ramon Hernandez traded to Cincinatti - You're looking at the new Bengie Molina. He could have a significant place in the Reds lineup, especially since they won't be resigning Adam Dunn. He's still capable of approaching 20 homers in such a small ballpark, but his AVG will hurt. He's in a contract year and could make a decent gamble for those who like to wait around on catchers.
Ryan Freel traded to Baltimore - His numbers aren't likely to change much for he's reliant upon someone on his team getting injured. It's doubtful that he goes into 2009 as an everyday starter, something he proved he couldn't handle during his tenure with the Reds. Again, he'll be a cheap source of steals, but his value drastically depends on your league's position eligibility rules.
Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez - I'm surprised he settled for only three years, but the Mets got what they needed: bullpen help. He won't have as many saves as he did last year (nobody ever has) but he should be a top five closer no matter how you slice it. The 77 strikeouts were a career low, 13 less than his previous career low of 90. His 1.29 WHIP too, was a career low. He's still a top option because of his job security, but fantasy-wise, there should be better options. Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan and Joakim Soria all had WHIP's under 1.00 and Brad Lidge was pretty dominant as well. This signing won't vastly help the Mets starters get more wins, though. It's the 6th, 7th and 8th innings where they were the weakest when Billy Wagner was healthy.
Red Sox sign Junichi Tazawa - The Japanese talent is only 22 years old and stands a strong chance of starting the year in the minors. Regardless, he deserves to be a late-draft flier because you never know with Japanese pitchers. If he were to find immediate success, like most do, he'd jump into a rotation for a strong Boston team and could provide value.
Edgar Renteria signs with San Francisco - Look at the Giants making some moves. I love it and they are an Adam Dunn away from winning the division. You heard it first here. Renteria's return to the NL can only help his value. He was great with St. Louis, Atlanta and Florida but awful with Boston and Detroit. He should up his average and bat second in the batting order. He should reach about 85-90 runs depending on who is batting behind him. He'll make an excellent MI this year, but try to get a better starting SS to begin the season.
Khalil Greene traded to the Cardinals - You'd think leaving Petco would be a good thing, where Khalil hit .215 last year. When you come to realize he batted .212 on the road, you'll think twice. While a change of scenery always makes anyone worth a gamble, his career has shown that he's a terrible hitter, but has the power to hit 15-20 homers. Steer clear of him if you want to salvage your team's batting average. I'd take a chance on him making a comeback by drafting him as my #4 infielder, after I've selected a starting 2B, SS and MI.
Bob Howry signs with San Francisco - The news continues to get better for the Giants pitching staff. First Jeremy Affeldt and now Bob Howry. Howry did an excellent job setting up for Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol in Chicago over the last few seasons. His presence should greatly help Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum get more wins because holding leads late in games was not something the Giants bullpen was able to do last year. For fantasy purposes he'll be the set-up man for Brian Wilson.. so Wilson owners in 2009 should keep an eye on Howry.
Russell Branyan signs with Seattle - He's nothing more than a CI in deep leagues. Sure, he could pop 15-20 homers with increased playing time, but he's likely to fall into a platoon situation once Seattle realizes he can't hit lefties.
Javier Vazquez traded from Chicago to Atlanta - Javier Vazquez is the model of consistency as far as major league pitching goes. He has gone eight consecutive seasons with over 200 innings pitched (one year was 198) and has struck out 200 batters in back-to-back seasons, which puts him with elite company. After spending the last five seasons in Chicago, Arizona and New York, Atlanta presents the friendliest ballpark Javier's seen in a while. A move to the NL will only help his strikeout totals too. A notoriously unlucky pitcher, Vazquez should be considered a top 30 starting pitcher going into 2009. His reliability makes him one of the safer bets for 200+ innings and 200+ strikeouts around.
Mike Hampton signs with Houston - He's 37 years old and has made only 25 starts over the last four seasons. His strikeout rate is horrendous. Don't bother drafting him at all.
Mike Mussina retires - I guess you can cross him off of your keeper lists. Good news for Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and potentially Joba Chamberlain. The Sabathia, Burnett and Lowe rumors are likely to increase with this news.
Coco Crisp traded from Boston to Kansas City - If you like cheap SB's then Coco Crisp is for you. He'll finally get full playing time, which could result in 30 stolen bases. However, his power is non-existent and he's a career .280 hitter. If he leads off or bats towards the top of the lineup, he surely won't top his career-high 69 RBI. I'd view him as a #4 OF at best.
Brad Hennessey signs with Baltimore - He's likely to replace Steve Traschel - in more ways than one. A move from the friendly confines of SF to the AL for the soft-throwing righty doesn't seem like a great move.
Jeremy Affeldt signs with San Francisco - This move will very much help Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain more so than your fantasy team. Don't bother with him, but enjoy the padded protection in the late innings for Giants starters.
Nick Swisher traded from Chicago to New York Yankees - It's unlikely that Bobby Abreau resigns with the Yankees after this move. It doesn't matter if Swisher plays OF, 1B or DH's. He should be in the heart of the lineup and his value from last year should remain consistent next year.
Kevin Gregg traded from Florida to Chicago - He will only close now if Carlos Marmol were to get hurt. He isn't someone to draft next year unless you like handcuffs.
Scott Olsen traded from Florida to Washington - I didn't like him last year and I don't think his value changes much with this move. His K/9 ratio was in the bottom five in baseball and isn't likely to get much better in 2009.
Josh Willingham traded from Florida to Washington - Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Elijah Dukes, Nick Johnson and now Josh Willingham. Where do they play all of these mediocre players? There are only four spots for five players. If Nick Johnson doesn't return, then Willingham will play first. None of these players should be weekly starters on your roster next year. Although, Dukes makes for an interesting sleeper late in drafts.
Emilio Bonifacio traded from Washington to Florida - Twice traded in the last three months. First for Jon Rauch and now for Olsen and Willingham. Unless Uggla or Cantu moves to first base, I don't see him getting much playing time.
Matt Holliday traded from Colorado to Oakland - An interesting story here. Holliday couldn't have gone to a worse situation for his fantasy value. Being protected by Jack Cust and Kurt Suzuki won't do wonders for his value at all. His .308 road AVG was 8th best in the majors though. Despite that average being significantly lower than his .350 Coors AVG, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball. It's logical to expect his AVG to decline along with his power simply because he is leaving Coors field. Because the Oakland lineup is amongst the worst the baseball, it's unfortunate that his runs and RBI totals are likely to decrease as well. Can he repeat his career-high 28 SB's from just a year ago? Holliday owners have two things to be happy about: He's still in a contract year going into 2009 and he's highly likely to be traded in July to a contender. I still see him as a first round pick. However, towards pick #9, 10 or 11 as opposed to my previous rank of #4, 5 or 6.
Greg Smith traded from Oakland to Colorado - He's mediocre and now will pitch in Coors. Avoid him.
Carlos Gonzalez traded from Oakland to Colorado - He can't hit lefties and is likely to platoon with Ryan Spilborghs at best. He could even start the year in the minors. Carlos could be good long-term, and is worth taking a flier on towards the end of your draft because of his upside and ballpark, but keep your expectations low.
Huston Street traded from Oakland to Colorado - Does he close or does Manny Corpas? Does he get traded or does he stay in Colorado?
Questions or comments? brettg@fantasyphenoms.com
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