Who To Watch - Braves and Astros
	written by: Brett Greenfield 02/02/2009

My guy to have in 2009 is Javier Vazquez. Aside from Jake Peavy and Johan Santana, nobody else has more strikeouts over the last three seasons than Javier Vazquez. He’s also one of only three pitchers to strike out 200 or more batters in both 2007 and 2008. He’s one of the more under appreciated pitchers in all of baseball. In 11 of his 12 major league seasons, Javier has made 30 or more starts and has maintained a 1.27 WHIP. Moving back to the NL should only increase his chances of striking out 200 batters once again. Make sure you have him on your roster this year. He can be had somewhere between rounds 10-12.
 

 
 

My guy not to have in 2009 is Yunel Escobar. He came on strong in his MLB debut, batting .326 in just over 300 AB’s. However, in his first full season, Yunel batted .287, which is a big difference. While he’s still likely to hit for a high AVG, he doesn’t provide much pop. Ten homers shouldn’t be enticing for anyone’s fantasy roster, nor is his combined 130 RBI and runs. Escobar was caught stealing in five of his seven 2008 attempts, giving him only 2 SB on the season. Since he provides very little in each of the five categories, I’d rather have my MI be a guy who can at least steal 25+ bases.

Second base is a shallow position in 2009…right?  Maybe there is disparity between the top tier talent and the rest, but if you miss out on that top tier second baseman, my "guy to have in 2009" should be a nice value later in the draft.  Kelly Johnson, despite hitting four less home runs in 08, made strides in the right direction that could lead to across the board improvement in his age 27 season.  Battling back soreness, Johnson hit 39 doubles in 08 that may translate into a few more home runs in 09.  He has lowered his K rate for the third year in a row and has held a steady contact rate of around 80%.  You can get Johnson around rounds 16-17 and expect .280, 85-95 R's, 15-18 HR's and 10-15 SB's. 
 

 

Despite a very nice 2008, my "guy not to have in 2009" is Jair Jurrjens.  Yes he's young and has the stuff to be a reliable major league pitcher, but could find a regression in counting numbers in 09.  Jurrjens does not sport impressive K/9 and BB/9 rates.  The most we can expect is between 140-150 K's.  Current ADP has Jurrjens going around round 15.  There are just too many pitchers that are very similar later in the draft. 

My guy to have in 2009 is Wandy Rodriguez. The Magic Wand will be the #2 behind a declining Roy Oswalt this year and sported a 3.54 ERA last year. What I like most of Wandy is his second half. In 60 innings, he struck out 66 batters, which gives him over a K per inning. If he can stay healthy this year and reach 200 innings, he could provide excellent value as one of the last picks of your draft. He will be relied upon by the Astros more than ever this year and could surprise.
 

My guy not to have in 2009 Miguel Tejada. Miguel has decreased his HR output for five consecutive seasons. In over 600 AB’s in 2008, Tejada’s AVG dropped to .283. It had been at .295 or above for the previous four seasons. Tejada’s 24 walks were his lowest total since 1999. There are better options with upside at this position than Miguel Tejada.

I love drafting talented young players coming off of down seasons.  Why?  Because they will come at a discount and there is plenty of room for improvement.  That's why Hunter Pence is my "guy to have in 2009".  I don't think anyone expected Pence to hit .322 again, but a regression to .269 was way too low.  Something in the .280-.290 range seems where Pence will end up over the course of his career.  The power has never been in doubt and could reach 27-30 in 09.  Add to that 10 or so SB's and Pence could serve as a very good second outfielder. 
 

 
 

My "guy not to have in 2009" is Miguel Tejada.  Tejada's age is already in question, now so to is his offensive approach.  At age 35(?) in 2009 it's hard to imagine Tejada getting better at this point and the chances are more likely that he will continue to decline.  His current ADP puts him in rounds 9-10 where there is a bunch of players with way more upside.  In a recent mock draft I ended up drafting Tejada in round 14 to fill my MI slot.  In my opinion this is how to view Tejada in 2009.  He'll be much more valuable as a MI than a starting SS.