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The 10...11* Fantasy Commandments
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*We don’t want to get sued…
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11- Pick with your head, not your heart
This is true in many walks of life, but for fantasy purposes, let’s get to a few examples. Chicago fans- I know you are praying for a Rich Harden Cy Young Season, but if you draft him in the top five Rounds, you are begging for disappointment. Grab him in the 9th-11th. Met Fans- no, Pedro Martinez will not have a resurgence this season whenever he returns from his latest surgery. And Yankee Fans…oh my dear Yankee Fans…A.J. Burnett is NOT a “lock to win 20+ games” because he is a Yankee. My only amendment to this commandment is that you use your sentimental pick with you last overall pick. Cardinal fans- you may use Chris Carpenter as your last overall if he gets there. Remember him???
10- It’s not over an hour after your draft…don’t think it is
So you and your buddies planned it out, finally. Live draft day in the books. Drafting, beer, wings, March Madness, trash talking, what have you; a great day. Following the 2-5 hour draft are usually about 10 smirks of pure over-confidence and joy. Raise your hand if you have ever declared a minute after your draft- “This league is mine.” OK…I have said it too, but regardless of how “stacked” a team may be, over 162 games, stuff happens. Drafting is 1/3 of the championship puzzle. Being able to negotiate trades, and look at players as stocks with fluctuating value is paramount for success. Example- If you traded Josh Hamilton last year for great hitter or two along with a “toss-in” SP like a Zach Greinke, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson…Bravo. On the other hand, numerous panic stricken owners in April were frantically trying to “dump” C.C. Sabathia and Ryan Braun to name a few. So what if they started off poorly? Consider this- after a potentially “off” two months, the player has four months to redeem himself. Four months. Don’t make stupid blockbusters before the summer. Let your team breath, and play out a bit. This segues into the last 1/3 and next Commandment..
9- Be a Waiver Wire Hawk
I can’t stress the importance of this. Over the last few years, players have gotten their would be “cups-of-coffee,” coming up from the minors and never going back down; Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, Cole Hamels, Jay Bruce to name a very few from the last few seasons. These guys are out there, so save those waiver priorities. Please don’t burn it on a pitcher who is 3-0 with a 3.59 ERA and 11 strikeouts five starts and 30 innings pitched in that you never heard of. Make sure you grab those young phenoms about to burst onto the scene with those top level waiver picks.
8- Don’t be “That Guy”
I am a realist. I know that every single league in America and the World over has that one guy; at least. The one guy, who is always ready to criticize people unprovoked. Now don’t get me wrong, trash talking is fun, part of the game and accepted until certain people abuse the liberty to let boys be boys. Being a guy who is condescending, attacking and over-critical is the quickest way to get a bulls-eye on your back, and be virtually ex-communicated from the league in trade talking. Let your opinions be known, but do it classy- no one loves “those guys.” Utilize league private message boards and emails. Negotiate civilly, and refrain from airing horrendous trade offers to the public. I know seeing a trade offer like Lyle Overbay, Barry Zito, Juan Pierre and Jason Giambi is not getting Hanley Ramirez. Hold the urge to publicly abuse the offer…what I like to do, is send back a trade you KNOW he will never do. They probably will not respond with such idiocy again.
7- Have Patience…it is truly a virtue
As previously stated, please do yourself a favor and realize that this is a six-month season. Pitchers will start out slow at times, like Sabathia's, Jake Peavy's and Johan Santana's early season outputs showed us. How many of you were in leagues where people put a 7.00+ ERA C.C. Sabathia on the block in early May? Probably many of you. For certain guys who have done it FOR YEARS, give them some time to make good on your investment in them. As for hitters, same rules apply. A career .300 hitter and 5+-year MLB veteran hitting .190 in Mid-April WILL GET RIGHT in due time. That’s why he is a career .300 hitter. Now, if a career .275 hitter starts off that way, well, its bench time. Not drop time…bench time.
6- Dis-respect the elders
 Before our +65 demo throws a fit; in real life I very much respect my elders. Yet in fantasy baseball, more often then not, I don’t. What I mean by this is, certain vets in this game have certainly seen their best days. Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano and even the great Mariano Rivera have ALL SEEN THEIR BEST DAYS. It’s safe to say that none of these guys will have career years in 2009 or any year after. No, I am not saying that Chipper Jones in the 7th round is not super value; I am saying, why go with the elder Jones in the 6th or even 5th, when you can get a young upstart like a Chris Davis there? We have yet to see his career year. I’d rather go with that risk-reward, since he truly has an uncapped ceiling at this point in time. Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria…next guy? Certainly it can be Davis. Feeling a bit dangerous? You can even wait it out 8-10 more rounds and land Alex Gordon, or 5 more rounds there after and get Dayan Viciedo. Who?
5- It is not Closing Time until Last Call- Do not draft closers early
I have made my peace with many things in life. Early in my teenage years, the realization hit that I’d never be a pro baseball player when I saw my first curve ball. I’ve made my piece with the fact that we will probably not ever see another Major League movie to make up for that disastrous Back to The Minors nonsense. Scott Bakula…after Necessary Roughness, why do this? Why? Sorry, I digress…back to the Commandments. I have made my peace with the fact that I will never again draft a Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan or Francisco Rodriguez. Are they the best in the biz? Yea. No argument. But in this day and age, where half of the leagues current closers will either hurt themselves or loss their jobs, why take a risk in the first 5 rounds? Papelbon, or any RP at that, is an arm tweak away from leaving you with massively declining Save, WHIP and ERA totals for a few weeks…even Ks too. Anyone draft J.J. Putz in the 4th or 5th last season, and declare, “I am set with saves?” Ouch. Ask yourself this- would I rather any of these guys, and sacrifice top 50 offensive talent at that spot? Or would you rather stack the offense, and hit on the next Matt Capps’, Brian Wilson’s, George Sherrill’s, and Mike Gonzalez’s of the world? Last year, we told you to save those RP picks for the 15th on. If you do that again this season, target save guys like Joel Hanrahan, Tyler Walker and any of the aforementioned hits from last season. And if you need a few more…I’d predict about 20 RPs will be added via the waiver wire post draft this season who will hit 10+ saves at some point in '09. Jensen Lewis, Jon Rauch and Kevin Gregg to name a few. See Commandment 9.
4- Honor Thy 5-Category player
It’s the first three rounds…not at all what will win you a league, but it can absolutely lose it for you. Sure Ichiro sitting around for your 22nd overall selection seems nice, sure Ryan Howard at the back end of the 1st is enticing, but think about this 5x5 roto owners…there are less than a dozen true 5-category superstars thus far in the fantasy baseball universe. In my opinion, here are the pre-requisites for that title…
.290+ 20+ Homers 190 RBI/RUNS combined 15+ Steals
Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols (speed days are near gone), Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Chase Utley AND Nick Markakis (yea) are some of those special few who give you a little to a lot of everything. Getting two or even three of these guys in the first few rounds is an excellent way to lay the foundation to a winner. Some guys who haven’t put ALL these numbers together in one years’ stat-line and could do it in ’09- Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Kinsler, Grady Sizemore (doubtful with his average) and one guy who may come very close if healthy, Carl Crawford (a 3rd round must). Lastly, remember Alex Rios in 2007? I see a 2009 stat line closer to that then last season’s under-achievement overall. If he is there in the fourth, he shouldn’t be.
3- It’s ok to steal from your neighbor- So do it
This isn’t a tea party fellas. It’s not Oscar-Party ballot night at your girlfriends or the one your wife throws annually in your living room. You play to win the game. A Herm Edwards quote in a Fantasy Baseball preview…what can I say? Got to love Herm. Anyway- there are strategies that can be analogous to Texas Hold’em. You notice a weak player at the table- take him down. Fresh fish of the league may make totally ridiculous offers that may seem great in his eyes, but really, you know the wiser. It’s not collusion (that’s next) if you make a better move. It’s smart. If anyone wants to over pay for Nate McLouth (over-rated), Catchers (over-valued), or upstart lucky pitchers like Gavin Floyd, Jon Saunders or Jon Lester (over-hyped), let them. Happily let them. If you know your pocket Jacks are better than his slowly agonizing and pending busted straight draw, go all in after he tries to buy his way out of his bluff. Poker anyone?
2- It’s not always Collusion. Don’t look for it
Getting through an entire fantasy season in any league without the word “collusion” is about as hard as it is now to get through a day without hearing the words Recession, Steriods, or A-Rod. Back to the “C” word. Please don’t be the one to say, “Joey Votto and James Shield for Albert Pujols? THAT’S COLLUSION!!” No, it’s not. It’s a deal that can very well help out both teams. All deals are dependant on NEED, not NAME. I once traded Ryan Howard in 2006 for Chone Figgins 1-1. Before you shout in outrage- hear me out. It was a 5x5 roto league, and I was dominating home runs, yet was middle of the pack in steals, and down by a few points with two months to play. The guy on the other end of the deal was of course the opposite situation. Need for need. Figgins ends the season with 52 swipes, Howard 58 bombs, and I finished tops in homers, steals, and the league. The other guy…second overall.
1- KNOW YOUR RULES!
I really cannot stress enough, the importance of knowing your rules, formatting, roster requirements and league regulations. With the millions of drafts and leagues around the world, it’s very, very difficult to find the same exact situation in rules and regulations. Think of a snowflake, they say there are no two similar ones, and the same can be said for fantasy baseball leagues. AL Only, NL Only, Mixed, Roto, points, head to head, Average only, OPS only, Holds, no Holds, 3-OF’s, 5-OF’s, and the list goes on, and on, and on. For example, in point based leagues, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard negate about 15 of their homers due to negative points for strikeouts. Pat Burrell will kill your average, but in leagues where .OPS (On base percentage + Slugging percentage) is weighed, he is a goldmine.
The difference can be four rounds of draft position. In a deep 5-OF league, take risks with young guys in the mid-teen rounds. In smaller 3-OF, no UTL slot leagues, fill your offense early, and finish up with your pitching staff. Everyone is going to have a “stacked OF.” In a league were W’s are 20 points? Good luck predicting them, as Ws have become the most arbitrary stat in the game. Brandon Webb, Johan Santana (although banged up a bit) and C.C. Sabathia are easy targets for heavy win totals, but even their numbers are hard to predict thanks to bullpens…just ask Mr. Santana. Webb has proven, like these other two and more veteran SPs, that they put themselves and their teams in great position for a Win. So you can bump up these Aces a round for point-based leagues.
You must know your rules, and how you are getting your points, so you know who you should target to get them for you. It’s that simple. Not like your parting the waters here.
So in conclusion, know your Commandments, prepare for your drafts accordingly, rent a few Charlton Heston flicks and read up on www.fantasyphenoms.com. We’ll make sure you dominate this year. We have nothing better to do…
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