It's Play-off time, and the Twitter Fantasy Roundtable is here for you! We are happy to host this week, and we would like to thank all of the Roundtable participants for churning out some excellent coverage this season! Check out what the crew has to say here, then make sure to visit each of their fan sites. Good luck in your fantasy play-off endeavors all...
Sleeper QB – Jason Campbell vs. Giants: As a Giants fan I was really looking for another guy to put here, but Campbell is a perfect example of a sleeper; he is suddenly hot late in the season and going against a defense that doesn’t know how to cover or tackle. Over the last 3 weeks Campbell is the 3rd highest scoring QB, that’s right, the 3rd, ahead of such notables as Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre. He has thrown 7 touchdowns and is averaging 273 yards per game. The Giants on the other hand have given up 15 touchdowns, an average of 276 yards and have only grabbed 4 interceptions over their last 6 games. This is as close as you get to a perfect storm.
Bust QB – Joe Flacco vs. Bears: Over the 1st six games of the season Flacco was averaging 279 yds and just under 2 touchdowns a game, since then it has been a very different story. Since week 6 Flacco is only averaging 205 yards a game and only has 4 touchdowns over that 7 game span. He’s actually had 4 games over that span with less than 10 fantasy points. This week he faces a Bears defense that held Aaron Rodgers to 180 yards and no touchdowns last week. Look for another option if you want to play n your league’s championship game.
Running Backs
Sleeper-Laurence Maroney- New England- Very quietly, Maroney has become the feature back in New England, averaging 18.8 touches a game since their week 8 bye, and coming off of a week with a season-high 24 touches. He had a six game streak of scoring a touchdown from weeks 6-12, including two scores in each of weeks 11-12. Buffalo has not been able to slow any running back down this year, allowing 158.6 rushing yards a game at home. The Bills secondary has been a ball-hawking unit, and I would expect the Patriots to lean on their running game in a must-win AFC divisional match-up. Buffalo 29th in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed with 17 and last in the league in both rushing attempts allowed per game (34.4) and rushing first downs allowed (114).
Bust-Steven Jackson- St. Louis- Been talking about this for weeks now, but how long would the Rams run Jackson out there 30 times a game when the season is a lost cause. Playing with a herniated disc in his back, it makes no sense to expose their franchise back to further injury. Even with everything staying status quo for the 1-12 Rams, it looks like Keith Null could make his second start of the season, and last week that meant that Jackson would average 2.5 yards per carry on 19 carries. The Rams offensive line is also in disarray, with starting left tackle Jason Smith still out, and starting center Jason Brown missing practice with illness. They are promoting lineman from the practice squad and signing players off of waivers to try to provide any depth to the unit. Houston has a very active front seven, and with a potent offense, could jump up quickly on the scoreboard, much like they did last week against Seattle. That left the Seahawks running backs statistically ineffective. You probably can't bench Jackson this time of the year, but everything points to him to be a bust this week.
Sleeper: Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans- One of the arguments that I have read a lot over the course of this roundtable is that some of us choose sleepers who are actually stars. Because of this, I debated naming Britt as my sleeper this week. Over the past few weeks, he has become Vince Young's favorite target, but I still don't hear him getting the respect that he should be given right now. If not for Percy Harvin benefiting from Brett Favre and the emergence of Sidney Rice, Britt would easily be the top receiver in the 2009 rookie class. This week the Titans go up against what has been a very weak Miami pass defense which means great things for Britt as he continues to prove why he will be that number one receiver that Titans fans have been searching long and hard for. Britt has scored all three of his touchdowns this season in the past four weeks and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday against the Dolphins.
Bust: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons- White has had yet another solid season for his fantasy owners as he closes in on 1000 yards and 10 TDs. However, this week the Falcons are taking on the Jets and when I think of Rex Ryan's Green Machine defense, the one name that comes to mind is cornerback Darrelle Revis. Revis has been absolutely frightening as a shutdown corner throughout 2009 and has taken the best of the best and limited them to basically nothing. The guy even held Andre Johnson, who is arguably the league's top receiver, to just four catches for 35 yards. If he can do that to Johnson, he can surely do it to White, and that is grounds enough to justify your benching of Roddy this week.
Tight Ends Bust - Jermichael Finley- In the last 8 games the Steelers have given up an average of 24 yards a game to tight ends and only one touchdown. The Steelers are back home and looking to save some face against a good team after looking pitiful against bad teams. Stopping Finley from beating them would go a long way toward accomplishing that goal.
Sleeper - Fred Davis- He has scored 3 touchdowns in the last 2 games. That's not a blow your socks off and call you Shirley kind of stat, but both the teams he scored on hadn't allowed a touchdown to a tight end until they met the likes of Touchdown Davis! The good news for Davis this week is that he gets a Giants team that is extremely weak against tight ends. In the last 8 weeks they've given up an average 86 yards and 11 fantasy points to them.
Sleeper: Houston at St. Louis- I’m not generally a proponent of using an otherwise weak fantasy defense just because of matchup, but Houston has shown enough improvement on that side of the ball this season to take advantage of the awesome conditions here. First of all, we have a Rams offense in such dire shape that coaches are holding out hope that Kyle Boller will get well enough to start. This is a guy with a 1-2 touchdown-interception ratio this season and 14 sacks taken in his four starts. An offensive line that had improved lately now heads into the weekend with two new starters at guard after losing Jacob Bell to injury and dumping Richie (is that “Headbutt” or “Butthead”) Incognito. Steven Jackson is frustrated, hurting and the only guy in the St. Louis offense worth serious attention. On top of that, the Texans’ run defense has vastly improved this season. The Texans should be able to produce at least three sacks for the third straight game, and it’s hard to imagine the Rams scoring much more than the 7 points Seattle managed at Houston last week.
Bust: New Orleans vs. Dallas- When last we saw the Saints’ defense in primetime, it was stifling Tom Brady and the Patriots’ vaunted pass offense. In the two weeks since, New Orleans let Jason Campbell and Chris Redman each pass for more than 300 yards and combine for four touchdowns against just two interceptions. Into town this Saturday night comes Tony Romo, who has thrown seven touchdown passes and no picks over the past three games, hasn’t taken more than two sacks in a game in four weeks and has helped his team average 22 points in its past three outings. The Saints’ victories over Washington and Atlanta turned into unexpected shootouts. We should expect one in this case.
Beanie Wells ARI- Running Back- I have been waiting for his week for about a month or so when I first started talking Wells up big time. With the Cardinals facing the Lions this week, coupled with the fact Tim Hightower’s popularity is waning in Arizona, this could be a major day for the rookie.
Jason Campbell WAS- Quarterback- The Skins have a pride game against the Giants this weekend, and they’d like nothing more than to hurt their division rivals’ play-off chances. Campbell has been very solid the last few weeks, and he has thrown for 7 TDs in the past three games. Look for 250 yards and a pair of TDs at least for Campbell.
Brian Hartline MIA- Wide Reciever- This rookie wide-out has been a very pleasant surprise for the Fins in their push to the post-season. With the main attention focused on Ricky Williams and reception machine Davone Bess, Hartline could see a nice amount of targets, and could even get in the endzone for the 4th time this year.
Tom Brady, Quarterback- Tom Brady hasn’t been the fantasy stud recently that we’ve all come to know. He struggled through rib and finger injuries Week 14 versus the Panthers, and has had to defend star wide receiver in the media. Even a completely healthy Brady might struggle with this tough matchup with the stingy Bills pass defense. The Bills are only allowing 7.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and 189.8 passing yards per game. Brady has not played well in his last 4 games since losing to the Colts averaging only 12 fantasy points per game. If you have a playoff spot on the line this weekend and Brady is your Quarterback, it would be in your best interest to explore other options to ensure that you are still playing next week.
Rashard Mendenhall, Running Back – Rashard Mendenhall was expected to produce a monster fantasy day for his owners in Week 14 against the hapless Cleveland Browns and the entire Steelers team was caught off guard by the inspired play of the Browns Defense and Joshua Cribbs. Even without run stuffer Shaun Rogers, the Browns still were able to contain Mendenhall because of the gusty winds. Browns defensive coordinator Rob Ryan gambled that his corners could cover Holmes and Ward in man coverage, and that left them the ability to run a variety of zone blitz schemes. Mendenhall should expect a second consecutive tough fantasy day going up against the stout Green Bay defense. The Packers are quickly becoming one of the best run defenses in the league (85.0 rushing yards allowed per game) despite switching to their new 3-4 alignment just this past offseason. Green Bay has only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns all year (Minnesota-2, Baltimore-1). The Steelers are heading south already and now look like long shots for a playoff berth. Look for other options this week if you own Mendenhall.
Sidney Rice, Wide Receiver – Rice and the rest of the Minnesota passing attack had a decent fantasy day versus the Bengals in Week 14 after their poor showing versus the Cardinals the week before. Next up for Lord Favre are the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on Sunday Night Football. The Vikings can clinch the NFC North with a win this week but they shouldn’t look past the Panthers. Carolina is fresh off a decent effort limiting the Patriots and Tom Brady last week, they and have one of the leagues best pass defenses despite their struggles against the run. Randy Moss was shut down and held to one catch and a fumble literally hurting tons of fantasy owners in the first round of the playoffs. The Panthers could also end the hopes of Sidney Rice owners who have been counting on him all year as a waiver wire gem. Carolina only allows 13.6 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have only allowed 3 receiving touchdowns with their 6th ranked pass defense. The injuries are started to pile up for head coach John Fox, but they would like nothing better than shutting down the Vikings and delaying their playoff party for at least another week.
