|
Fantasy Roundtable |
Waiver Wire Pitchers
|
|
Many pitchers in your starting lineup went undrafted this year. That usually makes them risky options. However, deciphering who may become reliable can make a big difference. This week's questions focuses on that issue:
The following pitchers are off to hot starts but weren't drafted. which one is most likely to carry this early success over the course of the season? Brett Cecil,Tom Gorzelanny, Wade LeBlanc, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister
Derek Carty - Hardball Times
I'd probably go with Gio Gonzalez. He's pitching to his MO - lots of Ks, above average GBs, shaky control. Last year his LIPS ERA was 3.73 and he's shown promise in the minors, so a good 2010 shouldn't be anything too unexpected. He's throwing a 92 MPH fastball to go with a nasty curve and a plus change. If he ever figures out his control, he could be a top 25 pitcher. Until then, he's still a great AL-only play and even has some value in mixed leagues.
Marc Normandin - Baseball Prospectus
I'll go with Gio Gonzalez for this one. Sure, he walks more batters than I care for, but the strikeout rate is something to drool over, especially for a guy that went undrafted in most leagues. My one concern is that his homer rate will rise--for his career he's at 1.3, but this season is down at 0.5 per nine.
His SIERA for the year is 3.95, which isn't too far off from his current ERA. SIERA stabilizes quickly even with smaller samples, so I like what I'm seeing here from Gonzalez. He's also owned in under 13 percent of ESPN leagues, so he's available more often than not--people haven't bought into him yet.
Chuck Anderson- Fantasy Pros 911
Each of these pitchers have some positive qualities, but the most likely to maintain his early success is Tom Gorzelanny. He has the most major league experience on his resume, including a 200 inning 2007. Poor control derailed him in 2008, but he has adjusted since then. In his Pittsburgh years he threw his slider and curve equally, but in 2009 he started relying on his slider more and in 2010 the curve is on the shelf for the most part. The “new” slider is a little bit slower and features more horizontal movement. Since he began using it more his chase rate has climbed well over the league average and his contact rate has plunged into the mid-70 percent range. If these numbers do not dramatically turn he can fully expect to maintain a K/9 in the 8.00 range.
So far Gorzelanny’s BABIP against and strand rate are not out of line with league averages. His HR/FB is a little low, but even the most cynical “luck-neutral” calculation of his skills, tERA, shows 3.41. The schedule will also likely break his way, he shares a division with Pittsburgh and Houston, two bottom five offenses.
Tim Dierkes - Roto Authority
My preference is Gorzelanny. I like Cecil and Gio too - I think Gio could be this year's Jonathan Sanchez. And Cecil's biggest issue is probably pitching in the AL East. That's part of the reason I prefer Gorzelanny - on your list only he and LeBlanc are in the NL. Of the two Gorzelanny has the strikeout edge. Gorzelanny also gets credit for having the most big league success of the group, given his 14-win 2007 season. It's true that in '07 his peripherals did not support a sub-4.00 ERA, but he still tossed 200 decent big league innings. Gorzelanny also has the intangible of the teachings of Greg Maddux.
Brett Greenfield - Fantasy Phenoms
I'll go with Tom Gorzelanny. He showed he can hang in the big leagues in 2007 with Pittsburgh and last year in AAA struck out a batter per inning over 87 innings. He maintained a 2.48 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP as well. Being tutored by Greg Maddux has to be considered a good thing and Gorzelanny had not given up more than three runs in any start until his reunion with the Pirates last week. With a .330 BABIP, his ERA is bound to drop a bit in the future.
His 2.83 DIPS and 3.61 ERC prove that his actual 3.60 ERA is no fluke. Tom is also striking out 9.67 batters per nine. Our Sabermetric Pitching Index currently ranks Tom Gorzelanny 11th overall amongst starting pitchers. If he weren't 1-4, he's be getting a lot more attention. We think he could be a consistent pitcher on your fantasy team all year long.
|
