Greener
On The Other Side |
We certainly wasted no time.
Here are the participants and the results.
Round 1
1. Rotoprofessor - Hanley Ramirez
2. Fantasy Pros 911 - Alex Rodriguez
3. Fantasy Baseball Generals - Jose Reyes
4. RotoScoop - David Wright
5. Fantasy Baseball Insider - Albert Pujols
6. Mock Draft Central - Chase Utley
7. Fantasy Phenoms - Matt Holliday
8. Hardball Times - Miguel Cabrera
9. Newsday Sports - Jimmy Rollins
10. Baseball Geeks - Grady Sizemore
11. Fantasy Baseball Generals - Ryan Howard
12. Pojo Fantasy Baseball - Ryan Braun
Round one went rather smoothly. I don't like Ryan Howard in the first round despite his gaudy power numbers. His .250 AVG and zero SB's make you seek out a SB/ high AVG guy with your next pick instead of taking the best player available. Swap him out with Carlos Beltran and I'd have an identical first round.
With my pick I was debating between Holliday or Sizemore. Ultimately I took the high AVG over the added SB's. What put me over the top is Holliday's 2009 contract year.
Here's what my team ended up looking like...
Round 1 - Matt Holliday
Round 2 - Alfonso Soriano I like his power/speed package.
Round 3 - Carlos Quentin - Took him over Carlos Lee, Rios, Markakis.
Round 4 - Matt Kemp - Long debate between Kemp and Pedroia; 15/35.
Round 5 - Nate McLouth - Couldn't pass him up; Started off with five OF.
Round 6 - Josh Beckett - Lincecum (2), Santana (2), Webb (4), Peavy (4), Sabathia (4), Hamels (5), Lester (5), Liriano (5), Halladay (5), Haren (6). So, Beckett was the 11th guy taken. Tremendous value.
Round 7 - Felix Hernandez - He's not even trendy anymore. His "stuff" has the potential to be a #1 SP one of these days. Wanted him or Billingsley and Billingsley was taken.
Round 8 - James Shields - Took him over Cliff Lee. I love this guy. He's reliable.
Round 9 - Ricky Nolasco - That's right. This just in: he's good. Vazquez, Matsuzaka, Oswalt, Burnett went later this round.
Round 10 - Zack Greinke - Homegrown. I'll stick with him one more year; Passed on Zambrano.
Round 11 - Matt Cain - Like Felix, he's got the "stuff." Verlander and Josh Johnson went after him.
Round 12 - Conor Jackson - We keep thinking he'll break out. Maybe he will. Missed out on Loney.
Round 13 - Johnny Cueto - He's got potential. I risked it early here once Morrow, Danks and Young (SD) were taken just before me. After a nice run, I think it was time to go get some hitters.
Round 14 - Casey Kotchman - Now in Atlanta, he's primed to shine. His 95% CR will asure us of an increase in batting average next year. He's got Loney-like potential, but four rounds later.
Round 15 - Rickie Weeks - With Kendrick taken, I needed a 2B... with upside.
Round 16 - Jorge Cantu - My man got no love. I took him over Lowell. Nice value.
Round 17 - Kevin Slowey - Do I need another SP? No. He's good though.
Round 18 - Manny Burriss - My starting SS. I'll take it. He could provide 25-30 steals and possibly bat second in the Giants lineup.
Round 19 - Eugenio Velez - Solid September, no more Ray Durham and the release of Omar Vizquel give me hope. A MI of Burriss/Velez in rounds 18-19 could provide 50 SB's next year.
Round 20 - Yadier Molina - At least he gives me a solid AVG.
Round 21 - Jorge De La Rosa - Great K/9 ratio. Great second half. Great sleeper.
So, here's what my team looks like on a roster...
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Conor Jackson
2B - Rickie Weeks
SS - Manny Burriss
3B - Jorge Cantu
MI - Eugenio Velez
CI - Casey Kotchman
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Alfonso Soriano
OF - Carlos Quentin
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Nate McLouth
P - Josh Beckett
P - Felix Hernandez
P - James Shields
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Zack Greinke
P - Matt Cain
P - Johnny Cueto
P - Kevin Slowey
P - Jorge De La Rosa
Analysis
Unfortunately, looking at a roster in a normal way, shows the weaker part of my team before the stronger part.
I am not a believer in position scarcity (obviously) as I drafted five OF to start the draft. In doing so, I covered all my categories with monsters. Holliday and Soriano are proven and help out everywhere. Quentin would have hit 40 and driven in 120 if he'd played the final month. Kemp went 18/35 and like Alex Rios, 55 combined HR/SB, no matter how you slice it, is great. Kemp may go 25/25 next year but that's still worthy of where he was selected. Nate McLouth is a guy who I doubt exceeds his 2008 totals, but contributes enough in all categories to warrant a 5th round pick.
Rounds 6-13 were focused on pitching. If you wait until round 6 or 7, you can still get an ace like Josh Beckett. Sabathia and Santana went four rounds earlier and are not much better (I'll have you know that Josh Beckett was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball in 2008 and pitched the same way he did last year. He'll bounce back.)
Again, by waiting this long I can afford to take the best available for about six rounds in a row. In doing so, I grabbed other high K/9 ratio pitchers who have upside left in them. Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Johnny Cueto all possess high ratios (Shields' being the lowest) and each and every one of them (aside from Cueto) has shown the ability to give close to 200 innings of sub 4.00 ERA. None of these guys are old and most are in their prime.
It was now time to salvage my offense with some value. After taking the best player available for the first five rounds, I got great value with my pitching staff and likely have the best one out there.
Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman, Rickie Weeks and Jorge Cantu are perfect examples of young players with potential. They've disappointed thus far, but in rounds 12-16 it's worth the gamble. Cantu, even if he doesn't quite repeat, and isn't that young, seems like a quality option in round 16.
Manny Burriss and Eugenio Velez could probably have waited about five more rounds. Since we didn't draft a bench, I needed to fill these roster spots at some point.
My strategy wasn't to wait this long necessarily, but players I wanted got taken and both of these guys have a legit chance to provide Ryan Theriot-like numbers in 2009.
I could care less about who my catcher is and Taylor Teagarden wasn't in the player pool so I grabbed Yadier Molina.
I could have nabbed closers like Joel Hanrahan, Trevor Hoffman or Gregg/Lidstrom, etc. but opted to take Kevin Slowey and Jorge de la Rosa instead. I like what they bring to the table and both have upside.
If the draft were to continue, from this point forward I would draft closers remaining (about 10 were still out there, including the three mentioned above). I think back to last year when at this point, I selected Kevin Gregg, George Sherrill, Kerry Wood and Brian Wilson.
For the entire draft results, click here.
Questions or comments? Brettg@fantasyphenoms.com
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