There are many clubs in baseball. We have the 3,000 club where its newest member, Craig Biggio, reached 3,000 hits just a year ago. There is a 50 homerun club, which includes active players like Griffey Jr., ARod, Thome, Fielder, Howard, Ortiz and AJones. Many more clubs in baseball exist.
I have recently uncovered a new club: The 3500 club. Many of you are already asking "What is it and how can I get in?" Sorry folks... membership is not coveted by fantasy owners.
Certain pitchers exhibit warning signs from year to year. I've always wondered why certain pitchers' careers take a turn for the worse. Some hurlers just throw too many pitches.
I've compiled a list of pitchers who have thrown 3500 or more pitches in a single season since 2005. There only appears to be a handful of them each year. However, there are several recidivists.
When I display for you the list of pitchers who are on this list and you see how their careers have taken a turn for the worse because of overuse, you'll know why nobody wants to be a part of this club.
In 2005, the following pitchers were members of the 3500 club: Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano, Doug Davis, Noah Lowry, Chris Capuano and Dontrelle Willis. What did all of these pitchers have in common in 2005?
1. They all had ERA's under 3.99.
2. They all threw 3500+ pitches
3. They have all had ERA's close to or above 5.00 last year and/or the year before.
Carlos Zambrano, despite not having an ERA close to the others, has seen his ERA, WHIP, and number of hits allowed and walks increase for 3 consecutive years.
I bet going into 2006 all of those guys were targeted in drafts only to have owners in dismay come July.
Today, none of those pitchers are weekly starters or are drafted highly at all, aside from Carlos Zambrano. And only naive owners draft him.
Let's take a look at the 2006 members of the 3500 club. The list includes John Lackey, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito, Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang. Let's leave out Lackey and Harang for a moment.
While we already spoke of Zambrano, Willis and Zito, we haven't spoken about Arroyo. His 240 inning, 3.20 ERA rose a full run to 4.20 last year. Expect it to increase again this year.
Lackey and Harang showed no signs of wear and tear last year, one year removed from the 3500 club. Be patient.
2007 member of the 3500 club include Dontrelle Willis, Daniel Cabrera, Gil Meche, CC Sabathia, Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Barry Zito, John Lackey and Bronson Arroyo.
Wow! Last year had 12 pitchers on the list. That would be a significant increase from the previous two years.
That makes three straight years on the list for Zito, Zambrano and Willis. I suggest steering clear of those three based on that information alone.
That makes two years in a row for Lackey, Harang and Arroyo. While Arroyo's ship has already sailed, shouldn't you be a bit more cautious with Harang and Lackey this year? I would, based on the percentage of pitchers in the 3500 club and their track records.
Some new members include Haren, Kazmir, Meche, Peavy and Sabathia. What do they all have in common? CAREER YEARS!
They all seem due for a big let down. The increase in innings for these pitchers may have contributed to their career years as Haren's ERA was close to 3.00, Kazmir led the league in K's, Sabathia and Peavy won the Cy Young and Meche had an ERA under 5.00 for the first time in 7 years!
Now, let's not get carried away here. I'm not telling you to steer clear of Jake Peavy. But I am sending out extreme warning signs for John Lackey and Aaron Harang. Both have made the list two years in a row and nobody has come out of the 3500 club alive after making it for two years in a row. Carlos Zambrano has been the one guy whose avoided a total collapse.. yet. But his numbers are clearly fading fast.
Guys like Sabathia, Peavy, Haren, Kazmir and Meche though, have to be taken seriously. They all experienced career years and threw more innings and pitches last year than in any other year during their careers.
As I continue to track the 3500 club's members, so should you. If you want to play it safe and avoid what many would deem "busts" come July... then avoid members of the 3500 club.
While it won't effect every pitcher in this elusive club, it will effect the majority.
|
