Name one pitcher and one hitter that is on the waiver wire in most leagues, that is worth picking up and could become the next Cliff Lee or Ryan Ludwick. Why them?
I'll take Ian Stewart as a hitter. He's only owned in 7% of ESPN leagues which is fair since he's only starting 2-3 games a week right now. Assuming he gets a starting spot, I can see him going a prorated 30/100. As for pitchers, Wandy Rodriguez is owned in less than 50% ESPN leagues and made a big leap in 2008. If he can keep his walk rate low (fell just below 3 per 9 IP last year), he has the potential to deliver top 2 pitcher value.
I don't know how available he is after that Opening Day home run, but Jordan Schafer seems like a fair gamble to have a very good year this season. Even though he has been a top-ranked prospect, his playing history is incomplete enough that it's hard to be sure what his true abilities are. However, that also makes him a little more likely to be free for the taking. What little can be gleaned from his minor league record suggests that he has a very good walk rate and that he has excellent speed. He could have quite a bit of power, and if that falls into place at the major league level, he could have a surprising year.
As for pitching, I think Jesse Litsch has the chance to have a Cliff Lee-like season. Litsch doesn't overpower hitters with a lot of strikeouts, but he can do a bit better than last year's 5.06 K/9. He also has the skill to post a better walk rate than last year's 2.54, and he induces a good amount of ground balls (at a 48% rate over the last two years). Add to this an above-average Toronto defense and you have enough "good pitcher" pieces in place to possibly complete an excellent season. Something more will have to spark to vault Litsch to the top, but he's young, he's improving, and stranger things have happened.
Here's three guys I like that you may be able to find on your wire.
Wandy Rodriquez. The kid is amazing, with nearly 3K's for ever BB and more than 8.5 K/9, Wandy's got what it takes. Now there are two things I want to mention that people often forget when jumping on the Wandy band wagon. The first is that last year saw a considerable jump in induced groundballs, what happens if that regresses? Also, he's not Clayton Kershaw young. That is, he's 30. But there are two other points that keep me waving a big foam finger that reads "I'm Wandy for Rodriquz." Last year his BABIP against was higher than normal, despite last year being a good year. The other is his oft mentioned ugly away splits. 2008 had a silver lining, the away splits weren't as bad as they had been. And 2009, well by the end of this year, the home-away difference will be a thing of the past.
Now Wandy isn't available in leagues where you have competent managers, so I'll dig deeper. Much much deeper. I like Anthony Reyes. The kid has huge talent and has his first full season away from the Cardinals to prove what they're missing. The birds were trying to make him pitch in a way the destroyed his natural movement, perhaps stepping back to what comes w/o trying will be the step he needs to take.
As for a hitter. Adam Jones. He's got a prime spot in the line up and is one of the most talented young studs out there. 2008 wasn't anything crazy good so some managers may have glossed over him. And hitting in between Robers and Markakis isn't a bad place to be.
There were a couple of votes for Cody Ross, who actually draws a lot of parallels to Ludwick in that he has always had good power but never really got a lot of playing time. Now he does, and I'd consider fewer than 25 HR a disappointment. He also has underwhelming, though not awful, contact skills, and some good BABIP luck would lead to a BA much like Ludwick's. Other names thrown around were Ryan Spilborghs, Elijah Dukes (might too owned in too many leagues to qualify), Wladimir Balentein, Hank Blalock, and Chris Dickerson, Adam Lind (undoutedbly owned in too many leagues after his hot start but still a great sleeper).
For pitchers, Jorge de la Rosa got a couple of votes, and he'd probably post an ERA around 4.00 if he shows the skills he did last year. Clay Buchholz also got a few - he just needs a spot in the rotation. Wandy Rodriguez, David Purcey, Cha Seung Baek (once off the DL), and Shawn Hill also got a mention.
Keep in mind that some of the players mentioned are digging deeper than others.
Zach Duke is only 25 years old and has had some success in the major leagues in the past. His WHIP went from 1.50 in 2006 to 1.76 in 2007 back down to 1.50 last year. His improved his K/9 ratio by 23%, albeit from a putrid 3.44 to a still putrid 4.23. Pitching 185 innings last year means he could push the 200+ inning plateau in 2009 and if he improves any more, he could produce a Joe Saunders-like season. He doesn’t go drafted, nor should he, but he’s someone to keep an eye on if he starts off hot. Duke pitched well in his first start too and will pitch twice in the upcoming scoring period.
Keep an eye on: Kyle Davies
Ian Stewart is one injury away from receiving a full time gig. He’s the backup for Todd Helton, Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins and even rotates in the outfield. The lefty has loads of power and the fans love him. The Rockies organization is doing their best to get his bat into their lineup, despite his sub-par defense. Stewart is making the best of his limited AB’s so far, to the tune of a .454 AVG, three runs scored, a homer and four RBI in only 11 AB’s. Right now, he doesn’t warrant starting, but he could develop as the season progresses. He’s definitely one to watch with 30 HR potential.
COMMENTS/
CONVERSATION
by: Harvey39 | date: 04/17/2009 9:35 am
Kyle Davies looks like he could become the next Lee... Time will tell.
